2026 Outlook: Lost Cause for Republicans in Washington State. But?

The candidate filing period, a significant milestone in any election year, has come and gone. There is still a long way to go until November but the outlines of this election in Washington state are already clear. Republicans are on the defensive, as they have been since Donald Trump took over the party. And now Republicans are even in danger of losing seats east of the mountains.

Donald Trump has made the GOP stronger in some parts of America – West Virginia, for example – but he has eviscerated it here on the west coast where he is wildly unpopular. He is an anchor around the neck of local Republican candidates.

After the 2014 election, Republicans in our state held four seats in Congress, including two in western Washington, enjoyed a 25 to 24 majority in the State Senate, and held 48 seats in the State House. Then came Trump and the collapse of Republican support among college-educated suburban voters. Election by election a blue cloud spread outward from the King County suburbs, then up and down the I-5 corridor, and now threatens to spill into eastern Washington.

Republicans lost the State Senate majority in a special election in Redmond in 2015, then lost Senates seats in Sammamish and Mercer Island, and two House seats in Federal Way in 2016.

The 2018 election was a nationwide disaster for Republicans. For the first time the party lost the suburban based 8^th congressional district which had been drawn as a safe R seat. State Republicans lost three more King County legislative seats, and the blue wave began moving north and south. The GOP lost one seat in Whatcom County, one seat in Island County, and our last seat in south Snohomish County. In Pierce Couty we lost the Senate seat in Gig Harbor, and both House seats in Lakewood.

The trend continued in 2020 and 2022 with additional Republican losses in Whatcom County, Lakewood, and Island County. Incredibly, Republicans lost southwest Washington’s bright red 3^rd congressional district in 2022.

Finally, in 2024 State Republicans lost another seat in Gig Harbor, and the tide moved into the Vancouver suburbs and threatened eastern Washington. Republicans lost one Vancouver area seat and nearly lost three more. And Republicans won close races in Chelan and Yakima area seats which until recently were absolutely safe for the GOP.

So now, five months before election day, Republicans hold no seats in Congress west of the Cascades and are down to 19 seats in the State Senate and 39 seats in the House. The GOP will mount a major effort to take back the 3^rd congressional district, and at least one legislative seat in Gig Harbor, but for the most part they will be desperately trying to hold on to their seats in southwest and central Washington.

The worst news for Republicans is the fact that they can no longer come close to the 40% share of the vote they need in King County to win statewide races. And they have had to accept the current reality and abandon any attempt to win back King, Pierce, and Snohomish County legislative seats that they held just ten years ago, making it virtually impossible for them to achieve legislative majorities even if they ran the table everywhere else.

When confronted with these facts Republican activists will shrug and say Washington has always been unwinnable for us or blame imaginary vote fraud due to mail in voting. Really? Again, before Trump, using the same election system we have now, Republicans had a majority in the State Senate, and were within two seats of a majority in the House.

2026 is a lost cause for the GOP here. The national tide will again swamp local Republican candidates. But all things are possible in 2028 when Trump leaves the stage. The Democrats have been the majority party here since the Great Depression, but history, including recent history, shows that moderate suburban friendly Republicans can win in Washington state, but the far right, now in the form of MAGA populists, get crushed.

One party rule is not healthy. Washington needs the GOP to again be a viable alternative to the Democrats. For that to happen, non-MAGA Washington state Republicans need be part of a national fight to nominate a Reaganite candidate in 2028 and return our party to traditional Republicanism. 

All politics now are national. As a candidate, there are two things on the ballot, your name and your party. When your party is toxic it doesn’t matter how hard you work or how good a campaign you run, you are going to lose. So, for Washington state Republicans the key fight in 2028 will be at the top of the ticket. Until our national identity is redefined the beatings will continue.