The candidate filing period, a significant milestone in any election year, has come and gone. There is still a long way to go until November but the outlines of this election in Washington state are already clear. Republicans are on the defensive, as they have been since Donald Trump took over the party. And now Republicans are even in danger of losing seats east of the mountains.
Donald Trump has made the GOP stronger in some parts of America – West Virginia, for example – but he has eviscerated it here on the west coast where he is wildly unpopular. He is an anchor around the neck of local Republican candidates.
After the 2014 election, Republicans in our state held four seats in Congress, including two in western Washington, enjoyed a 25 to 24 majority in the State Senate, and held 48 seats in the State House. Then came Trump and the collapse of Republican support among college-educated suburban voters. Election by election a blue cloud spread outward from the King County suburbs, then up and down the I-5 corridor, and now threatens to spill into eastern Washington.
Republicans lost the State Senate majority in a special election in Redmond in 2015, then lost Senates seats in Sammamish and Mercer Island, and two House seats in Federal Way in 2016.
The 2018 election was a nationwide disaster for Republicans. For the first time the party lost the suburban based 8th congressional district which had been drawn as a safe R seat. State Republicans lost three more King County legislative seats, and the blue wave began moving north and south. The GOP lost one seat in Whatcom County, one seat in Island County, and our last seat in south Snohomish County. In Pierce Couty we lost the Senate seat in Gig Harbor, and both House seats in Lakewood.
The trend continued in 2020 and 2022 with additional Republican losses in Whatcom County, Lakewood, and Island County. Incredibly, Republicans lost southwest Washington’s bright red 3rd congressional district in 2022.
Finally, in 2024 State Republicans lost another seat in Gig Harbor, and the tide moved into the Vancouver suburbs and threatened eastern Washington. Republicans lost one Vancouver area seat and nearly lost three more. And Republicans won close races in Chelan and Yakima area seats which until recently were absolutely safe for the GOP.
So now, five months before election day, Republicans hold no seats in Congress west of the Cascades and are down to 19 seats in the State Senate and 39 seats in the House. The GOP will mount a major effort to take back the 3rd congressional district, and at least one legislative seat in Gig Harbor, but for the most part they will be desperately trying to hold on to their seats in southwest and central Washington.
The worst news for Republicans is the fact that they can no longer come close to the 40% share of the vote they need in King County to win statewide races. And they have had to accept the current reality and abandon any attempt to win back King, Pierce, and Snohomish County legislative seats that they held just ten years ago, making it virtually impossible for them to achieve legislative majorities even if they ran the table everywhere else.
When confronted with these facts Republican activists will shrug and say Washington has always been unwinnable for us or blame imaginary vote fraud due to mail in voting. Really? Again, before Trump, using the same election system we have now, Republicans had a majority in the State Senate, and were within two seats of a majority in the House.
2026 is a lost cause for the GOP here. The national tide will again swamp local Republican candidates. But all things are possible in 2028 when Trump leaves the stage. The Democrats have been the majority party here since the Great Depression, but history, including recent history, shows that moderate suburban friendly Republicans can win in Washington state, but the far right, now in the form of MAGA populists, get crushed.
One party rule is not healthy. Washington needs the GOP to again be a viable alternative to the Democrats. For that to happen, non-MAGA Washington state Republicans need be part of a national fight to nominate a Reaganite candidate in 2028 and return our party to traditional Republicanism.
All politics now are national. As a candidate, there are two things on the ballot, your name and your party. When your party is toxic it doesn’t matter how hard you work or how good a campaign you run, you are going to lose. So, for Washington state Republicans the key fight in 2028 will be at the top of the ticket. Until our national identity is redefined the beatings will continue.
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Brief reasons why Republicans are not relevant in Washington state (or Oregon for that matter) which have nothing to do with national politics.
– Being religious is viewed with skepticism. Washington & Oregon are the least churched in the nation. Yet the Washington Republican Party base continues its fixation on a conservative Christian agenda on gender and imposes purity tests on candidates.
– Tax reform. The Republican Party frankly brings zero policies to the table. And because the Party can’t get its act together to resolve disagreements within the Party it means that the only role that the Party can play in this state is spoiler. Everyone agrees that the B&O tax is horrendous for business formation here but there is no leadership from the party that is supposed to represent business interests. We continue to have the most regressive tax system in the country and the Republican Party is ceding the debate to Democrats by staying silent on the topic.
– Incompetency. Trump is a millstone around the Republican Party’s neck because the national brand is incompetency. While there are a few exceptions for the most part Trump has placed incompetent loyalists in positions of authority. And at the Washington state level the Party has followed suit with some horrendously bad and unqualified candidates that don’t appeal to independents. That is an own goal.
Of course the Christian thing runs deep, as you may have read in this week’s Westneat’s Seattle Times column. House primary in Chelan county will be between the ordinary useless Republican of Vance’s ilk, and a megachurch assistant pastor, whose congregation has pitched in for 10X the funding. “We declare that Olympia is God’s, in Jesus’ name”, says the church pastor; they’re involved in big tickent men-only Christian nationalist events.
They can’t turn their backs on the major financial backing provided by these churches, they can only hope the church doesn’t provide its own candidates to primary them.
Rep. Mike Steele of Chelan, long-time leader in the Chelan Chamber, is no “useless Republican”. Steele is, in fact, a solid legislator capable of working on good legislation, no matter who sponsors it. Losing a good guy like Steele will only weaken what remains of the State Republican House Caucus.
The Republicans are destructive and have nothing to offer except vitriol and racism.
Until the rhetoric changes, and they have constructive ideas to offer to the state,
Republicans can continue to be thankfully a minority party.
The Democrat-Left’s depiction of Republicans, in general, is certainly worthy of their Jacobin lineage. Moreover, their tolerance of political violence and disposition that too often justifies property destruction further solidify their repute.
Moreover, moreover, aggressive and relentless vilification of WA Republicans and their principles over the years has certainly driven many party faithful to the catacombs. However, repression of others’ ideas won’t make the Left’s questionable political philosophy any more tenable. And, they will not win hearts and minds with the sword alone.
Are you still here? We don’t have to “repress” your ideas. All we need to do is laugh in your faces and pelt you with (figurative) mud pies. Because you deserve ridicule. Because every accusation from you lot is a confession. “The left’s questionable philosophy?” Really? When the right’s political philosophy boils down to these four points?
1. Them as has, gets.
2. The strong must rule the weak.
3. Devil take the hindmost.
4. Blame the victim.
The right’s “political philosophy” is rotten to the core, and so are those who promote it.
Projection: sociological phenomenon where members one group accuse members of another group of acting in a manner that they themselves are engaging in, often to divert attention from their own behavior (particularly common among groups living with high levels of fear/resentment)
Once again: Every accusation is a confession.
Moreover, moreover, however, “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” Trump said, a stunningly frank admission . . . .” An own goal. A “truth bomb.” Caused his man-dog Spot to wriggle and squirm unctuously while gaslighting, before T doubled down.
Glycerin Olgino hurls “fear and resentment”, evidently as a debate point.
May Allah help us all.
So correct, the sword alone. As in Iran, as in denying oil to Cuba leading to further impoverishment and undoubtedly deaths, as in murdering American citizens and immigrants, as in destroying parts of the White House and its grounds (ok, ok, the pick-axe not the sword), as in extrajudicial executions of so called narco terrorists in speedboats. By condoning these actions, WA Republicans are part of the problem, not any solution. The Dems are not blameless of course, execrable in many ways, but at this time they are by far the better human beings. By the way, love your watches.
Too late. I wrote a letter to the WA GOP telling them that I voted Republican in the past, but if they failed to support impeachment I would never again vote R for national or state offices, even if I live to be 120.
Make a new party. I am done with this one.
Don’t worry, in Washington you will still be voting at age 150. 😉
I am a Democrat who is annoyed by Democrats who demonize Republicans.
If you ask yourself “Why are many of the people who live east of the Cascades Republican?” it’s time to be honest with yourself. Would you concede that it CAN’T be because ALL those people are evil, selfish, uninformed anti-environmental Christian zealots? Something else is going on. If you want Washington State to have a democracy which people from both parties trust, It’s past time to figure out what that “something” is.
I hypothesize that raging about Republicans and calling them names is more fun and less work than, say, joining a political group which develops grass roots support for policies which voters from both parties can support. (Or finding a group to join). I further hypothesize that name-calling meets an emotional need. Perhaps name-callers realize that working with a small group to develop and promote quality candidates and quality policy ideas for, say, fire control and water management will frustrating. Maybe they worry that they’ll wind up in a group where everyone wants to have a voice but no one wants to work very hard?
To give Republicans more of a voice in Washington State politics, I’m open to voting for Republicans who run roles like City Attorney’s Office, County Judge, State Treasurer, etc. I’m open to voting for Republican-leaning City and County leaders.
There are probably others like me out there who DO want informed Republicans to point out the “gotchas” in proposed public policy.
Here is an example of why Republican feedback on public policy is important. Suppose that MOST Washington voters want to develop sustainable, sensible water and forest fire policies. Suppose that they are willing to concede that our state’s economy and our democracy will be stronger if our water and fire policies meet the most critical needs of people who live on BOTH sides of the Cascades. Think: “farmers who operate east of the Cascades and increasingly unemployed urbanites West of the Cascades who struggle to pay their utility bills”.
If that’s the case, why not shift away from name-calling and blame? Instead, why not work with others who want affordable electrical energy and clean water – and become informed about the pros and cons of adding data centers to the mix?
Why do rural areas often lean Republican? Some of the traits you identify could have a lot to do with it. I have some other ideas about it, maybe you do too. But who cares, really? This is their party’s problem – if they’re ever going to move towards being electable for state office, they’ll want to think about how to retain support out in the hills.
That’s the problem Vance is pointing at – poor showings in state elections. His problem is that he somehow can’t remember that this has been going on long before Trump. The last Republican governor was 40 years ago. I totally agree that we need a two party state capitol, but it’s going to take a real course correction from which candidates can emerge that have little in common with today’s Republicans.
“Moreover, their tolerance of political violence and disposition that too often justifies property destruction further solidify their repute.”
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January 6, anyone? Every accusation is a confession with this lot.
I hope that Republican hating Democrats will read articles like https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/meta-got-3-3-billion-101500029.html and open up to the notion that, sometimes, the enemy of my enemy (data centers which drive up the cost of electricity and water) is my friend. I would argue that Washingtonians from both parties would benefit from a careful scrutiny of data center deals.
A great topic. I’m a lifelong Dem, leaning liberal, and wow, has our current period (utter malfunction from Repubs, followed by one-party rule of Dems in Olympia) ever been a case study of why our American system needs both parties functioning in a healthy way. I’m eagerly awaiting the demise of the current Repub lunacy nationwide, so we can return to somewhat normal here in Washington. I’m still hopeful that sensible, sane Republicans can pull it back together someday… We need you!