Happy filing week, when voters around the state learn who has the ambition to lead them as prosecutors, port commissioners, legislators and such. It’s 91 days before the Aug 4 primary.
This cycle is already unique, at least for legislative races, because Democrats are walking around extra light on their feet. The Donald Trump era has been awful for WA Republicans, so much so that most of the hottest races will be between progressive Democrats trying to pick off centrist Democrats. And blue tailwinds are also giving Democrats hope of stretching their map of power in Olympia.
Democrats’ dreams of gaining a supermajority in the Legislature have hovered like sugar plums since a Trump 1.0 backlash gained them seven House seats in 2018. They’ve picked up two more seats since then, giving Dems a 59-39 seat edge. To actually catch those sugar plums, they’d need to flip six more House seats (and retain hard-won seats) and pick up two in the Senate. The former is more likely than the latter. But we hear that polling by individual campaigns suggests that the Trump headwinds are giving Democrats a four or five-point tailwind this election cycle.
Here’s why you should care about this: Supermajority control would grease the skids to put state Constitutional amendments before voters (say, lowering the 60% margin needed to pass school bonds) and to tweak legislative rules that led to the marathon all-night House floor debate on the millionaires tax. And big picture, it would give Democratic leadership more buffer to lose caucus members on tough votes, which could push the left-tilting Legislature further left.
Dems see the ripest opportunities for a flip in the 17th and 18th LDs in Southwest WA. One theory of change for those districts is that an absolute avalanche of money will be aimed at the 3rd Congressional District race between U.S. Rep. Marie Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and state Sen. John Braun. MGP seriously outperformed other Democrats in the presidential election in the district, creating — in theory — coattails and an army of doorbellers for legislative candidates to ride.
In the 17th, which hugs the Columbia River from Camas to Goldendale, Democrats are bullish about Diana Perez, a Vancouver city councilmember, taking on GOP Rep. and Washougal mayor David Stuebe. Stuebe won by less than a point in 2024 after the district boundaries were redrawn twice since 2021. It’s too early to learn much about the fund race, but expect strong support from the House Democratic caucus and allies.
In the 18th, which includes Vancouver’s northern suburbs, Sen. Adrian Cortes, D-Battle Ground, flipped the Senate seat in 2024 by 172 votes after longtime GOP Sen. Anne Rivers’ retirement. This year, Rep. John Ley looks vulnerable after pleading guilty to misdemeanor election fraud charges. Among his challengers is a labor-connected Democrat, Deken Letinich, who previously challenged Rep. Stephanie McClintock, R-Vancouver. McClintock now faces horse ranch owner Randi Knott.
The tailwinds for Democrats are stiff enough that Rep. Monica Stonier, chair of the House Democratic campaign committee, took a pause when asked if she was worried about defending any members from a Republican challenge.
“I feel like I haven’t thought about that as much as I have in the past — thanks to Donald Trump,” she said.
Playing defense on the income tax
A new labor-funded 501(c)4 group has formed to wage a bruising campaign to defend the newly passed income tax on millionaires. The group, appropriately named Millionaires Tax for Washington, is led by Democrat heavyhitter Aisling Kerins, with consultants Sandeep Kaushik and Erik Houser running comms. Funding comes from SEIU Local 775 and the Washington Education Association for now.
Where and when the campaign will be waged is still a bit tbd. The state Supreme Court on Monday slapped back an attempt by conservative initiative machine Let’s Go Washington to subject the millionaires tax to a referendum. The Supremes order focused on the “necessity clause” in the millionaires tax legislation — ie, it was necessary for “the support of state government” — and found it met the bar, despite Republicans’ protests.
LGW now has to climb the higher and more expensive mountain of repealing the tax via initiative. In addition to needing a ton more signatures to reach the ballot, a repeal initiative would carry a fiscal warning label, thanks to a 2022 law Democrats passed to dampen enthusiasm for tax-cutting initiatives. Ballot language would probably mention that axing the millionaire’s tax would also whack education funding and subsidies for the working poor, and roll back some sales tax cuts. It would give a voter pause, and that’s by design. Voters haven’t approved an initiative that cut taxes since the fiscal warning label legislation was passed.
Either way, there is ample work to do defending the tax in the court of public opinion. A prime example of slippery messaging arrived via a full-page ad in Sunday’s Seattle Times, paid for by the Washington Policy Center. It declares Seattle will have the highest income tax rate in the nation of 18.04% — full stop, no caveats. That presumably mushes together the 9.9% tax on personal income above $1M – paid by probably a few thousand people in Seattle – with the city’s “head tax,” paid for by business, and a new 5% city tax, paid by businesses, on employee compensation over $1M. Fun with numbers.
This report ran previously ran in The Washington Observer, an independent newsletter on politics, government, and the influence thereof. It’s made possible by our paid subscribers.
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