Will Alaska be a Pickup for Senate Democrats?

Alaska is of great distance from Washington, D.C., but much closer in figuring Democrats’ bid to reclaim control of the U.S. Senate. They need to flip just four seats, which has put a target ok on the back of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.

With signs of a blue wave next November, his seat has come into play.  The 49th state is GOP territory, but its majority voters have displayed a quirky independent, libertarian streak.  They have twice defied Trump to reelect independent-minded GOP US Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Sen. Dan Sullivan operates in the shadow of his seatmate.

Alaska is potentially low hanging fruit in a high-stakes, high-expense battle. Television time is relatively cheap. The state has opted for ranked-choice voting in which the top vote getters in the primary election face off in November. A survey by Public Policy Polling shows Sullivan trailing Democratic challenger Mary Peltola by two points.

Only recently has the race appeared on radar screens. After the sudden death of crusty Congressman-for-life Don Young (who served for 49 years) Peltola flipped his seat to the Democrats and was reelected in 2022. She became the first Native Alaskan to serve in Congress, a fisheries expert, born and bred in the Alaska bush.

The oil industry runs Alaska. Peltola’s response has been one of “Drill Responsibly, Baby, Drill.” Nonetheless, Seattle greenies and progressives populate her fundraisers when Peltola flies south on fundraisers. She was introduced, at one Seattle event, by ultra-liberal U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal.

Dan Sullivan’s website rails against the federal government, notably a Biden administration policy for protecting the 23-million-acre National Petroleum Reserve. The plan approved a trio of drilling platforms for the Willow Project, proposed by Conoco, but set aside wide tracts of habitat for the Western Arctic Caribou herd and migratory birds.

Meanwhile, Canadian-based conglomerate Northern Dynasty Minerals has not given up on trying to construct a massive open pit gold and copper mine at the headwaters of the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery, which is located near Bristol Bay.

Just this week, Alaska Fish News reported that Sullivan is still pocketing Pebble donations as Northern Dynasty spars with the government over the fate of the mine in court. The Trump regime has continued Biden’s policy of opposing the mine.

“Sullivan, who has held office since 2015, has remained silent on the lawsuit as he seeks re-election this year, Meanwhile, he continues to accept campaign donations from Pebble backers as recently as December 2025,” Alaska Fish News’ Laine Welch wrote. “Sullivan only came out against the mine in September 2020 after a series of explosive video tapes were revealed in which Pebble CEO Tom Collier and Northern Dynasty President/CEO Ronald Thiessen detailed their insider access to Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy and other Alaska power brokers, including Sullivan.”

Sullivan’s acceptance of Pebble campaign cash could give Peltola — who is running on the theme of Family, Fish, and Freedom — fresh grist for her campaign.

Issues can be quirky in Alaska. An instance is the outcry over feds’ greenlighting of plans to cull grizzly bear and wolf populations in Western Alaska, where caribou have suffered predation. Meanwhile, the oil industry has been backing off: major firms have not bid on lease sales for Cook Inlet, nor in the first Trump administration. 

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” is impacting some 221,000 Alaskans who receive benefits from Medicaid. The legislation did allocate $55 billion to a fund devoted to rural health care, but that issue hangs over the 2027 race.

The Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the US Senate. Only one GOP senator up for reelection hails from a state carried by presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024, Susan Collins of Maine. The Democrats must hold their own seats coming vacant (Illinois, Colorado and Michigan) while targeting Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, and (surprisingly) Texas. The Peltola campaign has raked in nearly $9 million so far in 2026.

Washington’s stake in this? Should Democrats run things, Patty Murray will chair the Senate Appropriations Committee, while Sen. Maria Cantwell will take the helm in the Senate Commerce Committee. Cantwell has a complicated, constructive relationship with Murkowski. The two senators have fought like cats in a bag over oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge but allied to secure money to build a new heavy-duty icebreaker.

This story also appears in Cascadia Advocate.