Donald Trump has tried—and mostly failed so far—to change election rules to block what should be a strong Democratic showing in the upcoming midterms. Is he done? The stakes are high enough for him—losing GOP control of the US House and possibly the Senate, guaranteeing investigations of his rampant corruption and policies (tariffs, “massive deportation,” and expansion of executive powers, for example) that he definitely is not stopping.
In fact, people should start thinking—and trying to stop—a repeat of Trump’s performance in 2020: use of violent and non-violent methods to steal the election from Joe Biden. This time he might succeed, and it will spell doom for our democracy.
His justification, of course, is that voter fraud (especially voting by non-citizens) is rampant, a claim that’s been proven false repeatedly. Federal agents—many diverted from serious national security or crime-fighting missions—are combing through state voter records looking for cases to justify Trump’s claims. He has said they’ve found 250,000 cases in just four states, but those claims have been vigorously challenge, including by the right-wing Heritage Foundation, which found only 23 cases nationally from 2002 to 2023. Even the federal Department of Homeland Security admitted that, whereas it originally claimed 15,000 non-citizens were registered to vote in Nevada, DHS officials later admitted they had found just 185 verified cases. As of May, federal prosecutors have filed charges against just seven persons.
All indicators show that Trump is deeply unpopular (overall approval ranging from 32% to 40% and disapproval consistently at 60 or above). He’s also deeply under water on his handling of the economy (-21 to -31), the cost of living (-25), and the ongoing Iran war (-26 to -33). Democrats lead in both House and Senate generic ballots by 6-7 points. And the Cook Political Report rates the House result as likely Democratic (with the caveat that GOP gerrymandering successes give GOP a chance to retain control) with control of the Senate as a tossup. All the more reason for citizens to expect Trump to cheat, especially given his violent and non-violent efforts to steal the 2020 presidential election from Joe Biden.
So how might he do it? He’s succeeded in gaining seven House seats through gerrymandering, mostly because the Supreme Court struck down a provision of the 1965 Voting Rights Act that protected majority-Black districts. But he failed to enact the SAVE America Act requiring prospective voters to show documents attesting to their US citizenship to register. His effort to ban mail-in voting is still up in the air. He’s appealing to the US Supreme Court to override a federal judge’s ruling barring the US Postal Service (following Trump’s direction) from refusing to send mail-in ballots to states which didn’t turn in lists of voters and refused to follow the USPS’s ballot redesign. If a state submitted a list of voters applying for mail-in ballots, but identification on a few applications did not match voter registration information, all the applicants might be denied ballots.
Even though Trump himself regularly votes by mail, his scheme is designed to disenfranchise millions of voters. With North Carolina getting ready to mail out ballots and other states planning to follow shortly thereafter, and with Election Day Nov. 3 fast approaching, Boston judge Irina Talwani has blocked the Trump/USPS plan three times, partly because there is not enough time for states to implement its requirements. She also said that the USPS had not presented her with details on how its plan would work, thereby guaranteeing that the 2026 midterm elections would be chaotic.
But her primary reasons for rejecting the Trump plan were that the “the Constitution does not grant the President any specific power over elections,” that states and local governments have run elections since 1789 and that Trump’s orders would usurp state functions. Also the Postal Service lacks statutory authority to set rules for election management.
If the Supreme Court were to permit Trump to federalize elections in violation of the Constitution, it would be proof positive that the Court is his political ally. That would inspire more distrust of the Court, but I doubt that even Trump’s conservative majority would so nakedly dismiss the Constitution.
Rather, one danger is that Trump will encourage reigning Republican state and local officials to refuse to certify results if Democrats have scored enough victories in battleground states to take over the House and/or the Senate and also elect Democratic governors, attorney generals and secretaries of state who’d hold office for the 2028 presidential election. That, based on Trump’s 2020 record, is a distinct possibility insofar as the GOP officials who refused to bow to Trump’s demands (as in Georgia) have been defeated in 2026 primaries.
A more harrowing prospect is that Trump could declare a national security emergency, based on lies, of course, entitling him to install federal management of elections. A conservative talk show host, Wayne Allyn Root, suggested that to Trump, who responded “stranger things have happened.” It’s been suggested by other Trump allies, too. Democrats and state election officials would and should immediately file suit based on the Constitution’s giving the president no authority over elections. The question would be how quickly the case reached the Supreme Court. Hopefully, Trump’s action would be stopped swiftly.
Yet another possibility is that Trump could post ICE agents at polling places in swing states to intimidate voters. If protesters clashed with the agents (or if MAGA Republicans did so as agents provocateur), Trump could invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act, which would permit him basically to declare martial law, mobilizing federal troops and federalizing National Guards. The military takeover wouldn’t have to be long-lasting—even Pete Hegseth’s testosterone-powered warriors wouldn’t be happy policing American cities for months. They’d just need to be there during, before, and after the election. But if protesters carried on for weeks or months in a rebellion over Trump’s dictatorial rule they’d just have to obey orders.
Our democracy is at stake….
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