Way out here in Washington state we are used to being politically ignored. We aren’t a presidential battle ground. We aren’t an early primary or caucus state. Democrats routinely win. But there is one thing about our politics that attracts national attention: the predictive value of our primaries. And this year our primary is predicting a big blue wave, both locally and nationally
National analyst, Sean Trende, of Real Clear Politics, has written about this the most often:
This is something I’ve written about since 2010. In short, in Washington state, all candidates run on the same primary ballot. Because of this, and because of the fact that the primary occurs relatively late in the election season, there tends to be a strong correlation between a party’s combined vote share on the primary ballot and its eventual vote share in November, typically with a slight swing toward Democrats. It’s been helpful in providing a sense of where things really stand in Washington state’s races, and for understanding what the national environment is like.
Using combined vote share, if the results in the general election mirror the primary results we have seen so far Republicans will lose Washington state congressional and legislative seats once thought to be safely red.
In the 3rd congressional district -southwest Washington and the Portland, Oregon suburbs – Democratic Congresswoman Maria Glusenkamp Perez and two other Democrats are garnering 56% of the vote. This is a shocking result given the fact that this district was drawn to be a safe Republican seat, and Glusenkamp Perez barely won here in 2022 and ’24.
Republicans are trailing in three legislative seats (the 17th and 18th districts) they now hold in the Vancouver suburbs, trailing in a current Republican seat in the Tacoma suburbs, and amazingly trail in a seat in eastern Washington (the 12th). At least five other current Republican seats in rural and suburban areas are in danger based on these primary results.
Republicans have already become uncompetitive in the Puget Sound suburbs. Now they are hemorrhaging support in rural and exurb areas of Washington state.
I am not enough of data nerd to be able to extrapolate how these numbers play out in terms of how many seats Republicans will lose in the US House and Senate, but if Republicans are losing seats in southwest and eastern Washington the coming wave will be massive
Once upon a time, all politics were local. Now, all politics are national. As late as 2015, Republicans had a one seat majority in the State Senate and were within two seats in the State House. Today the GOP is irrelevant in the Evergreen state. As long as the Republican party is defined by Trump and his populist MAGA movement formerly purple states like Washington will continue to suffer under one party rule as moderate, swing suburban voters continue to choose the Democrats as the lesser of two evils.
The Republican party is going to lose in November, but the Trump era is about to end. Republican leaders in Washington state, and around the country should be thinking now about how they can fight to reposition the GOP for 2028, and that means returning the party to the core Reaganite conservative values and policies which once made the GOP competitive in a place like Washington state.
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But will the GOP in Washington State abandon its “MAGA” path and slowly return to a more moderate path…? And the same question for the Democrats….as a moderate Democrat will my party continue its “progressive” path or begin to listen to Governors Locke and Gregorire? My concern is that neither will happen.
I’m with you, Jim. As a moderate republican, can we move forward with some common sense? Independents aren’t Independent either. They are rebranding the fringes and that may be worse than picking a side.
I can only hope we come to our senses in the 23rd
NO, we aren’t going more moderate. That hasn’t worked. This is simple, Dave Reichert got destroyed and Culp did better. Moderate candidates do not win and they never have. We are going full MAGA and you can vote for Democrats if you have a problem with that. Independents have left the Democrat party. Our problem in WA is voter fraud. That will be dealt with. No ballots will be sent out in WA for the general.
Voter fraud? Please stop drinking the convicted felon Kool aide!
“Our problem in WA is voter fraud.”
Source? Of course not.
“[T]he Trump era is about to end.” Would it were so. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Why do you think we haven’t had a Republican governor in decades? Why do you think it took three recounts of ballots to give Gregorire the second term against Rossi?
I have been a voter for Democrats for some time, now, but I have fairly often voted for Republican candidates if I believed that they were the better choice. Now, I have decided that I will not vote for any Republicans, due to the national and local sycophancy to Trump. He has destroyed the Republican Party. He has appointed the worst cabinet I have ever seen. So I’ll wait to see the GOP reaction once Trump is gone. That can’t come quick enough.
The Republican Party absolutely owned Washington State politics when Dan Evans was governor. The advent of Reagan politics and its domination of the Republican Party in Washington state started the march to the party’s downfall and the disappointment it has become today. Promote Dan Evans politics in this state going forward, and the state Republican Party will quickly rise from the ashes as a competitive entity that will win votes and seats. The Republican Party needs a winner in this state that appeals to all voters. It’s about winning.
Respectfully, the world has moved on. 1980 was 46 years ago! We no longer operate within a political landscape that resembles anything like the Dan Evans era. No GOP candidate will ever champion environmentalism, consideration of marginalized populations, or other bipartisan approach to tackling current problems. That task has been absorbed by WA democrats. Our electorate no longer thinks in issues, balanced candidates are not able to cut through the partisan noise of how we talk about politics.
Same here – “returning the party to the core Reaganite conservative values and policies which once made the GOP competitive in a place like Washington state” is a death wish.
The last Republican governor was John Spellman – in the Reagan era, but not of it. There hasn’t been a Republican governor in 40 years, and it’s because of what Reagan brought to the party.
Good riddance to MAGA enablers!! It will take progressive Democrats to restore sanity to D.C. and return our tax dollars to working people vs mega corporations & the extremely wealthy getting even richer off our tax dollars (not to mention Trump & family corruption & their millionaire/billionaire buddies) while our communities suffer. The Dems have moved too far to the right in the past (started under Clinton) and here we are. Too much compromise has brought us to where we are. If the incoming Representatives & Senators fail to fight the MAGA extremism we are doomed. I will welcome the return of FDR Democrats working for the betterment of the hard working people who make this country rich but aren’t getting the benefits of their hard work.
What a joke. You TDS nut jobs are total morons. This has nothing to do with Trump and Republicans are not going to get “wiped out” this is nonsense cope from a dying party. Democrats are dead. They won’t even take back the house and when the election fraud is over here in WA they won’t stand a chance in the general.
Let me make this clear, MAGA is not going anywhere and we are just getting started. Trump opened the door to candidate like me and we are taking over. There is no going back.
Um, right. Get back to us after the election on all of that and let us know how that works out for you.
PS – even the ultra right-wing Heritage Foundation (does Project 2025 ring a bell?) had to acknowledge that there is so little voter fraud in America that it is practically nonexistent, and heaven knows that wasn’t the conclusion they were hoping to reach when they began studying it.
Good comment, but please use “/s” to denote sarcasm. Thanks.
You get what you pay for! So the big rich corporations cause a hellish life for the working poor people is all a mental construct. You are only thinking about MONEY in your checkbook or “the Jones phenomenon”. Being rich is a state of mind. Giving money away just to provide you a since of doing something good for a stranger is crazy. If you don’t earn your money then you don’t value the life that money pays for. We ALL were poor when we left home at 18 but we made decisions that lead us to our current situation – it is about your choices in life. If you continue to give hand outs – productivity will continue to decline cause they are expecting the free hand out. It is very wrong to expect a person that took riskes and made the tough hard choices to give away their resources to the person that has no drive or grit to make their life better just easier not to work hard. I know first hand – I left the entitled welfare life – was very poor working at a below minimum wage just stuck it out and taught my kids the power of working hard. They all have family’s, own a home and employeed in positions about 5 dollars above minimum pay. Do they fill poor – a working dog – no they are happy working in a job they enjoy and have a place to live with their family. They have been working at for 15 to 20 years. They are Americans and DoNot expect any handouts cause they are fine with their life choices You are in control of your happiness, your self worth, and your mental evaluation on how you want to be perceived.
Those who inherited their money are the ones who got the free handout, and they didn’t have any “hard choices” to make. But I guess in your eyes they deserve it, while the poors don’t. Am I right?
Turnout, turnout, turnout. Turnout decides elections. “Combined votes share” is a chimera that predicts nothing more than turnout. Whether in Washington State or Michigan or Georgia, Ds win when Ds (and :liberals and moderates and independents and voters who pay attention) actually vote. I would have thought your experience as an elected Republican and as Republican State Chair and as a losing candidate with multiple political labels would have informed you that turnout decides elections, not ideology or policies or party affiliations.