68.7 F
Seattle
Saturday, July 2, 2022

CoronaNumbers: Turning in our Favor?

Michael Levitt

A bit of optimism among the dreadful statistics was provided in a report by the The Times of London on March 23rd.  In an unbylined article, the Nobel Prize winning biophysicist Michael Levitt was quoted as being appalled by initial reports on the spread of coronavirus in China: “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30 per cent each day — that is a scary statistic. . . . I am not an influenza expert but I can analyse numbers and that is exponentially growth.”

Between February 1st and 6th, new cases increased from 1,800 per day to 4,700. “And then, on February 7, the number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop. A week later, the same happened with the number of deaths. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks.”

It did, at a rate predicted by Dr Levitt with an accuracy of more than 99%. Drawing on data from nearly 80 other afflicted countries, he saw similar trends. “What we need to control is the panic,” he told the Los Angeles Times. In the long term, “we’re going to be fine”.

The Times also quoted a tweet by the former head of the World Health Organization saying that “This pandemic will end. I’m more optimistic than most — I hope by June. . . . But that can only happen if people put the needs of others above their own. Forget politics and listen to the government — it will save lives.”

The entire article can be read here.

Roger Downey
Roger Downey
Born in Canada moved to Peru's altiplano at the age of six; came to the U.S. at 10 to discover that you don't use your feet to dribble the ball. Learned from the git-go that "America" is an idea, not a place.

Post Alley welcomes comments to our articles. Our guidelines: no personal attacks, stay on topic, add something of value to the discussion. Our editors will edit comments for clarity and to conform with our guidelines. We encourage writers to use their full names.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

LATEST

Why the Keystone State will be Key in the ’22 Election

1
No place is more pivotal than Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump has yet to concede his narrow loss to Joe Biden two years ago.

Disconnect: Missteps Over an Intruder at a Seattle Elementary School

0
On June 2nd, a series of events occurred in the Sand Point neighborhood including an incident at Sand Point Elementary School where an intruder...

Time to Lower the Heat in the Post-Roe Commentary

5
If the SCOTUS decision is the beginning, not the end, of the debate, we will need a lot more thoughtful commentary. Here are some examples.

Bolting for the Bigs: USC, UCLA Abandon PAC-12 for Big Ten (UW Next?)

14
It’s official now that the industry has fallen off the edge of the flat Earth propped so long by the mythology of amateurism.

Inside City Hall’s Serious Budget Shortfall

7
The multimillion-dollar gap -- viewed in the perspective of an annual budget in the $7 billion range -- is perhaps not horrific. But it still is bound to impact what the city can achieve towards meeting its on-going needs and ambitious social goals.

TRENDING

Bolting for the Bigs: USC, UCLA Abandon PAC-12 for Big Ten (UW Next?)

14
It’s official now that the industry has fallen off the edge of the flat Earth propped so long by the mythology of amateurism.

Disconnect: Missteps Over an Intruder at a Seattle Elementary School

0
On June 2nd, a series of events occurred in the Sand Point neighborhood including an incident at Sand Point Elementary School where an intruder...

Time to Lower the Heat in the Post-Roe Commentary

5
If the SCOTUS decision is the beginning, not the end, of the debate, we will need a lot more thoughtful commentary. Here are some examples.

Why the Keystone State will be Key in the ’22 Election

1
No place is more pivotal than Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump has yet to concede his narrow loss to Joe Biden two years ago.

Inside City Hall’s Serious Budget Shortfall

7
The multimillion-dollar gap -- viewed in the perspective of an annual budget in the $7 billion range -- is perhaps not horrific. But it still is bound to impact what the city can achieve towards meeting its on-going needs and ambitious social goals.