State Politics: Dems at War and War on The Stranger

A bruising fight for the left lane in the 42nd legislative district might just open a lane for a Republican to reclaim a formerly GOP state Senate seat in Whatcom County.

By all accounts, a trickle of the smart money is flowing towards Port of Bellingham Commissioner and Democrat Michael Shepard, whose campaign netted $7,000 from the business-minded Jackson Legacy Fund which shores up moderate Democrats. A professor of anthropology at Western Washington University, Shepard is running on a platform that includes moving the state to a self-insurance model. He’s also won nods from a host of state Senate Democrats. Shepard’s soon-to-be predecessor and fellow WW professor, Sen. Sharon Shewmake, gave him her endorsement.

The rather modest pile of Jackson Legacy money signals Big Business is turning their Benjamin Franklins out to greener pastures, namely the Eastside and Snohomish County, where established moderate Democrats still have a foothold.

Here’s why you should care about this: If history repeats itself, whoever wins the 42nd’s Senate seat is going to do so by a razor-thin margin. The 42nd spans the liberal ‘burbs of northern Bellingham and rural swaths of Whatcom County where MAGA fever runs red hot. Democrats are throwing heaps of money against one another this term, which could open an opportunity for Republicans. Some of the unique circumstances that helped Shewmake to victory in 2022 may not apply this November.

To Shepard’s left is Eamonn Collins, a high school science teacher for the Lummi Nation School who hands-down has won the left endorsement race. He’s drawn considerable union muscle — the Teamsters, AFSCME, and the Washington State Labor Council — in addition to the 42nd LD Democrats’ blessing. Collins promises to be something of an eat-the-rich rabble-rouser in Olympia focused on slashing sales taxes and beefing up worker protections.

As one astute observer told us, comfortable households on the left are likely a vote for Shepard. Struggling ones are likely a vote for Collins.

Both Shepard and Collins look to use up their war chests ahead of next week’s primary. To date, Shepard has amassed $96K. Collins has taken in just $72K, which includes a lot of out-of-state donations. This is a race that likely comes down to canvassers pounding pavement and knocking on doors.

The two are up against Republican Erika Creydt, a clinical psychologist who sits on the Blaine School Board. She’s running an inoffensive campaign on kitchen table issues — i.e., cutting small businesses a tax break, shoring up family farms, etc. Creydt is billing herself as a straight shooter twice removed from the late state senator Doug Ericksen’s MAGA culture warrior crusade. The usual monied players on the right have her back and, so far, she’s raised $179K to show for it.

Interestingly, Creydt has also spent nearly all her money, despite having the right side of the electorate to herself next week. There’s likely much more money to come on both sides.

A Republican upset this fall would be the first crack in Senate Democrats’ recent run of Trump-era success — one the Washington GOP is sure to parse over with a proverbial magnifying glass.

Conservative Mischief in the 43rd

A hard-fought campaign to oust an incumbent politician usually goes something like this: The candidate sticks to running on her qualifications and accomplishments, while some loosely allied PAC does the dirty work of peeling the political bark off her opponent.

A weird variation of that is happening in Seattle’s 43rd Legislative District, where lefty progressive Hannah Sabio-Howell’s longshot challenge to slightly less lefty-progressive Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen is getting some help from an unlikely quarter: The conservative megadonors behind Concerned Taxpayers of Washington.

The campaign leans into the far-left critique of Pedersen as a corporate lawyer too cosy with the rich and powerful, which, as we’ve noted before, is something of a stretch in the first place. Here’s an image from campaign’s mailer:

There’s a lot going on in that photo. Along with the gay florist trope – Pedersen’s Capitol Hill stronghold is Seattle’s traditional gayborhood, after all – the red roses are a visual name-check for the Democratic Socialists of America, which uses the flower as its sigil. And like many political ads, it ignores some crucial context: big corporations are already taxed at a higher rate than a gayborhood florist via Washington’s B&O tax.

Whether the left-leaning voters inclined to back Sabio-Howell are sharp enough to get the visual cue and/or light enough on tax policy to buy the corporate-shill rhetoric remains to be seen. The campaign has spent about $20K on mailers, $10k on cable TV ads, and $2.50K on the website ahead of the Aug. 4 primary, per its filings with the Public Disclosure Commission. Expect some handwringing from the 43rd about big conservative money from the suburbs playing in their election.

So why do this? Although Pedersen is a bete noir of the right these days for his methodical campaign to dismantle obstacles to an income tax, it didn’t seem likely that the folks behind this campaign would prefer the even leftier, more tax-the-rich, platform of Sabio-Howell.

Steve Gordon, the trucking magnate and conservative megadonor behind Concerned Taxpayers told us that he’s just happy to toss a little fuel on the political fire burning in Pedersen’s backyard.

Think of this as a small pesky tactic in a campaign cash war of attrition. Pedersen and allies have already spent a mind-boggling $560K defending one of the safest Democratic seats in the state from an intraparty challenge. That’s money that would ordinarily flow to defend vulnerable seats in swing districts.

For example, consider the previous item on the 42nd District up in Whatcom County, where Sen. Sharon Shewmake’s decision not to seek another term creates a pickup opportunity for Republicans in a district the GOP held as recently as 2022. Should Democrats come up a few votes short there, some folks will have some ‘splainin’ to do about all that money in the 43rd.

— Paul Queary

The anti-Stranger campaign

Legislative candidate Ron Davis’ path to victory in North Seattle’s 46th LD was premised on getting the Seattle progressive kingmaker The Stranger to endorse him. So his quixotic wrath against the publication when it snubbed him is something to behold.

Davis’ campaign blasted The Stranger’s endorsement of primary opponent/Stranger fav Will Dreher as a symptom of a shadowy cabal of Stranger investors behind owner Brady Walkinshaw in a text message blast over the weekend. That amplified a barrage of social media blowback on The Stranger, which appears to be kindled by a fairly small group of very online, very urbanist activists, aka the Davis crowd. And Jonathan spotted this sign in Seattle’s Roosevelt neighborhood, right in the heart of the 46th.

The link takes one to a “Cheat Sheet” – stealing The Stranger’s lexicon – that amalgamates lefty endorsers, giving extra weight to non-profit media such The Urbanist, which is unsurprisingly deep in the Ron Davis fan club.

In short, an ambitious Seattle progressive candidate is now running against, at least in part, the biggest name in Seattle progressive media. To quote the quotable Omar Little of The Wire, “If you come for the king, you better not miss.”

The 46th LD features a three-way race between fellow Harvard Law grads Davis and Dreher challenging longtime Rep. Gerry Pollet. The three have spent a combined $460K so far, making it one of the more interesting races to watch in Tuesday’s primary election.

—Jonathan Martin

A version of this story first appeared on the Washington Observer website.
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