Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is remarkably similar to Josef Stalin’s war against Finland — the Winter War of 1939-1940 — which began on November 30, 1939, 86 years ago this week. Putin’s war is similar to Stalin’s war in why he started it, how it went and what the world thought of it.
It could also be similar in how it ends. After three and a half months of war, Finland gave up 11 percent of its territory and allowed the Russian navy to have a large base on the southwestern Finnish coast.
At the time, the settlement was denounced as a surrender. James A. Wood, associate editor of the Seattle Times, saw nothing good in it. “Finland was compelled to capitulate to Russia and accept terms of extraordinary severity,” he wrote in the March 15, 1940, paper. Finland, he wrote, is “at the mercy of Russia.”
In 1940, several countries found themselves at the mercy of Russia. For Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and eastern Poland, none of which had fought like the Finns, the attentions of Russia were deadly. For Finland it was not. The loss of territory was permanent: the frontiers established by Stalin are Finland’s frontiers today. The Soviet Union maintained the navy base in Finland until 1956, three years after Stalin died. And until 1989, Finland was neutral — “Finlandized.”
But as historian Sean McMeekin writes in Stalin’s War (2021), “Finland had held out, preserving its independence.”
Could Ukraine do the same? The parallels between the two wars offer a hope. Like Finland, Ukraine had once been part of the Russian empire. When Finland was attacked in 1939, it had been independent for 22 years. When Ukraine was attacked in 2022, it had been independent for 31 years. And just as Stalin worried that Finland could allow in troops from Britain or Germany to threaten Russia, Putin fears a Ukraine in NATO that would threaten Russia.
When it invaded Finland, and also when it invaded Ukraine, Russia expected an easy victory. Both the Finns and the Ukrainians were outnumbered, Finland grossly so. But in Finland, the Russians were not prepared for a war in the snow. The war on Finland cost the Russians about 130,000 dead, compared with 26,000 Finns. Still the Russians pushed the Finns back, and Finland agreed to a painful settlement.
The Finns fought for three and a half months. The Ukrainians have fought for three and a half years — a period as long as the time America was officially in World War II. Like the Finns, the Ukrainians have made the invader pay: Russian casualties are said to be 950,000 to 1 million dead and wounded, compared with 400,000 for the Ukrainians. But unlike America in World War II, Ukraine has not been winning. Russia has seized — and kept — 22 percent of its territory. A settlement comparable to the one with Finland 85 years ago would be to lose this land to Russia, but leave most of the rest of the country untouched.
At this point, a Ukrainian might hope for a deal like that. But the politics are different. Finland was alone, but it negotiated for itself. Ukraine is at the mercy of its armorers. We and the Europeans hold the cards on Ukraine’s side, and Trump holds most of them. Volodymyr Zelensky has no good ones.
Trump ran in 2024 on the promise of ending this war, and he should do it. It is a terrible war, and there is no profit in continuing it. The Ukrainians won’t like the settlement, but at least they will be alive. They might remember the Finns.
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