What We Thought the Future Would Be (How did that work out?)

Twenty years ago (Nov. 2005), The Elway Poll collaborated with Glen Hiemstra of futurist.com to ask Washingtonians to look ahead to the year 2025. Now here we are. How is that future working out?

Most of our 405 respondents (63%) declared themselves to be optimistic about world of 2025. However, opinions about specific aspects of that future suggested that optimism was largely aspirational. Americans generally want to be optimistic, so declaring oneself optimistic may have been an expression of hope more than expectation.

Top worries for the future volunteered by respondents had to do with the environment (21%), war/terrorism (19%), the economy (15%), and social issues like crime and poverty (12%). Things people imagined would be better in 2025 included health and medical advances (19%), “technology” (19%), the economy (12%) and transportation (12%).

The outlook for the globe and America’s place in it was less than rosy. Out of every 10 respondents asked to imagine the world in 2025:  5 thought it unlikely that the US would still be the world’s largest economy (it is); 6 thought it unlikely that the US would be the world’s only military superpower (it is); 6 thought it unlikely that the war on terrorism would be won (we don’t call it that anymore); 6 thought the global environment would be in worse condition (it is); and 7 in 10 thought that the proportion of the world’s population living in poverty would be the same or higher by 2025 than it was in 2005 (it is lower – by about half).

Outlook for the country was mixed. Although half of these 2005 respondents thought the standard of living for the average American would be higher by 2025 (it is, on average); 2 in 3 thought the gap between rich and poor would be wider in the U.S.(it is) ; 6 in 10 thought Americans would have less privacy (true) and personal freedom (debatable); and 5 in 10 thought the percentage of Americans with health care insurance would be the same or lower (it’s higher – for now).

At the time of the survey, demographers and others were estimating that the United States’ population would level off around 2050. By nearly 3:1, our survey respondents thought that would be a good thing for the quality of life in this country.

If declining national population was seen as a positive trend, declining population in Washington state was seen as even better: 3 in 4 said it would be good for the quality of life here;  8 in 10 who thought it would be better for the state’s environment; and 6 in 10 thought a smaller population would be better for the state’s economy. Washington’s population has grown by about 30% in the last 20 years, from 6,257,305 to 8,115,100.

When asked what should be the highest priority for state and local government to bring about the conditions they would like to see in 2025, nearly 4 in 10 respondents listed “improving the education system” as the #1 or #2 priority, followed by jobs and economic opportunity (1 in 3); improving the health and welfare all citizens (1 in 3); protecting the environment (3 in 10); keeping the public safe and secure (2 in 10) and protecting the civil rights and liberties (1 in 6) and improving transportation (1 in 7).

By a 4:1 margin, more Washingtonians thought the government should make immigration more difficult rather than easier.

The 2005 sample was of adults, not registered voters, so we did not ask party identification. Party identification at that time was evenly divided with an average of 30% Democrats and 29% Republicans. But the deep partisan polarization that characterizes today’s politics had not yet set in. However, in what may now be seen as an omen, voters were split by education on issues at the forefront of today’s politics. Education level has become a prime predictor of political attitudes in the last decade.

For example, although there was no significant difference associated with education level in overall optimism/pessimism about the future, there were differences in specific areas. In the international realm, those with a high school education were somewhat more bullish on America than those with a college degree. More specifically, high school graduates were less pessimistic than college graduates that by 2025:

• The US would have the world’s largest economy (54% of high school graduates said that was likely, while 55% of college graduates said that was unlikely);
• The “War on Terror” would be won (71% of college graduates said that was unlikely vs. 55% of high school graduates);
• The US would be the world’s only superpower (61% of college graduates said that was unlikely vs. 50% of high school graduates).

The domestic economy produced the largest gap in the survey. Most respondents with a high school education (63%) expected the US standard of living to be higher while most with a college degree thought it would be the same or lower (57%). The reality has been almost the opposite. Living standards have bifurcated – higher at the top, stagnant in the middle and falling in lower economic strata.

Many argue that unmet expectations about standard of living are driving the “politics of resentment” fueling much of today’s political conflict. It is a mistake to make too much of one survey item, but these results lend weight to that argument.

What is important about these predictions is not whether they are accurate, but what they say about the mindset of those making the predictions at the time they were made, and how those ideas influence subsequent thinking & behavior. These 20-year-old ideas about the future foreshadowed much of the turbulence we are experiencing in today’s political climate.

The original full report of the 2005 survey, including items not discussed here, can be found here.