Bruce Harrell clearly enjoys being mayor of Seattle, but Hizzoner faces a growing challenge to hold onto his challenging job. A new opinion poll, released Thursday, shows Harrell trailing Katie Wilson, who heads the Transit Riders Union.
Wilson gets 36 percent in the poll, running stronger among younger voters and millennials. Harrell posts 33 percent, running strong with Baby Boomers. Twenty-seven percent were undecided in the poll of 522 likely Seattle voters, conducted by Change Research for Northwest Progressive Institute.
Wilson and six other Harrell opponents are not well known. As an incumbent, however, Harrell must deal with the distemper of our times. Incumbent mayors have recently lost reelection bids in San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Omaha.
The Harrell campaign has quickly responded to the poll, and tried to define Wilson negatively. Noting her “disproportionate support among moderate and conservative voters,” it said in a statement, Bruce’s numbers will climb when citizens contrast the achieving Bruce with Wilson’s “advocacy for defunding the police, unsafe tent encampments in our parks, and enthusiastic support for the divisive ideology of Kshama Sawant.”
Hizzoner is wise not to wait. Of the five Seattle mayors elected starting in 1997, only one — Greg Nickels — has secured a second term. When he sought a third term, Nickels didn’t make it past the 2009 primary.
More results of the poll, not yet released, reportedly show vulnerability up and down ranks of local officeholders. Harrell is on the down side of a 45% disapprove/37% approval job approval rating, but gets more thumbs-up than Seattle City Attorney Ann Davison, a Republican convert who narrowly beat a police-bashing opponent in 2021. Davison faces three challengers all of whom have out-raised her.
In 2021, the liberal city electorate was of a mind to punish excesses of the left, from the Capitol Hill occupation zone to the boorish camp followers of of Trotskyite Council member Sawant. (Sawant left the council on January 1). But the NPI’s poll shows dissatisfaction with the center-left council, a majority of them rookies, installed by voters. While losing popularity, Harrell is still registering higher than the legislative branch.
“Polls are a snapshot in time: They are not predictive to begin with; at best they suggest what might be happening when they finish fielding,” said Andrew Villeneuve, executive director of Northwest Progressive Institute, which commissioned the poll. NPI has established a solid record of suggesting victors and victory margins. No poll can forecast, however, election-shaping events.
Seattle voters are generous with government, even when it is taxing and annoying. A prime example: We’ve had soaring, transportation levies that have climbed from $360 million to $930 million to $1.55 billion, all of which passed. They were sold with such slogans as “Fix this Street” and “Move Seattle.” Yet many streets remain unfixed and SDOT projects have the Emerald City moving at a crawl. Individual construction projects have taken longer to complete than the Alaska Highway. For example, the Madison Street mess.
Elsewhere voters have been impatient is with mayors. “While incumbency is usually a weighty advantage, mayors of Seattle haven’t been able to take advantage of it in a long time,” noted Villeneuve.
Mayor Paul Schell was bounced from office after the. 1998 World Trade Organization riots and Fat Tuesday violence. Nickels saw support freeze and melt away after pokey, inept city response to a December 2008 snowstorm.
With Mike McGinn, the mayor fumbled response to a consent decree under which the U.S. Justice Department oversaw police reforms aimed at defusing confrontations and curbing cops’ use of force.
Jenny Durkan, after a strong start, found herself enveloped in controversy. Gone was the gushing over Seattle being America’s “most liveable” city. The homeless were camped on Third Avenue. Signs on I-5 coming into Seattle warned of protesters on the freeway. Council members embraced defund-the-police rhetoric, prompting an exodus from the force. Kshama Sawant opened City Hall doors to demonstrators and brought protest to the mayor’s home. Durkan chose not to seek reelection.
If the election of Harrell seemed to herald a return to normalcy, not so. The city’s population stood at 610,000 in 2020 but has since soared to at least 762,000. We are deep into an ongoing housing crisis. The police department is badly understaffed. Certain categories of crime are undergoing a downturn, but TV news depicts a city of illicit drug dealing and nighttime shootings.
The center is not holding. Seattle is a major tech center, home to medical research, and international trade magnet. Yet we are threatened by President Trump and demonized by the political right. The web is filled with the rants of Jason Rantz, Ari Hoffman and Brandi Kruse, and Seattle-as-Calcutta videos by Jonathan Choe.
The looney left beats up on a liberal Democratic mayor. Left media — The Stranger, Publicola, The Urbanist — peck at Hizzoner and target City Council boss Sara Nelson. Our demonstrators demonize Amazon and march down Pine Street chanting “what do we want? (Everything.) When do we want it? NOW.”
Incremental, constructive change does not appear to be in fashion.
Incumbency still carries an advantage — money. As of recent filings, Harrell has raised $390,585 to 256,318 for Wilson. A third hopeful, actor-activist Ry Armstrong, reports receipts of $89,853. No reports yet from ex-T-Mobile exec Joe Mallahan, a 2009 mayoral finalist who has filed again this year.
Harrell is running with backing of the M.L. King County Labor Council, which backed opponent Lorena Gonzalez in 2021. He has copped such effective supporters as the Seattle Firefighters.
And he does have a record on which to run and good stuff, e.g. a rebuilt waterfront, to show off. As says the campaign: “The mayor is proud of his progressive record -/ over $1 billion for affordable housing, connecting people to shelter and services, passing national-leading Green Building Standards, and massive expansion of transit access and tree planting.”
He’s touching all the bases. Is he touching the voters? As the campaign notes, “there is more work to be done.”
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The Mayor loses all support when one drives the freeways adorned with graffiti. Yet it is DOT and Gov. Ferggy who should get the blame. Get together guys and figure this one out
Think he’ll produce a police union contract for the council to vote on, before the election? I mean, there was a backfill contract that covered already past years, just for wages, but it seems like if there’s a union, they ought to be working under a current contract, and that would be a responsibility that the mayor’s office has known about for a long time. Or has he just given up on that, since it’s easier to just kick the can down the road with backfill contracts, than deal with the issues?
I personally don’t think Wilson could really win, if it’s her and Harrell in the general, but this depressing scenario is all too likely in our elections. Could Mallahan for example do a better job? Very likely, but who cares?
My biggest takeaway from this article, a lifelong Seattleite now retired 10 years and living in Anacortes, is the population increase from 610,00 in 2020 to approx. 762,00 today. If this is accurate, which my informal assessment agrees with, having made numerous visits to my old hometown through the years, then it is a monumental task for anyone to keep up with this level of growth, let alone satisfy various voting interests. Good luck to all…and thank you Joel, from this long time PI reader.
Well, yes but … that looks like a typo. That was the 2010 population. Growth between 2010 and 2020 was over 2%, which is enough to bring on plenty of disorder.
Since then it has flattened out some. Wikipedia says 2024 population is 781K, which if it’s comparable data would be something like a third of a percent.
(I mean, a third of a percent annual growth, over 4 years.) (And it may very well not be comparable data, I didn’t look into that.)
I’m not sure what Joel is referring to with “…the Madison St. mess.” It has been a mess for the past several years due to the construction of the RapidRide G Line. But, it appears most of that construction has wrapped up. Maybe he is referring to something else.
I live near Madison over in the Arboretum neighborhood, the steep slope of East Capitol Hill west of the namesake park and east of 23rd/24th Avenue East. There have been many times over the past 4-5 years where I’ve felt pinned into the neighborhood with Madison torn up, the Montlake Lid project in full force with accompanying traffic back-ups, and – in the past year – some little bus turnaround project being built near Eastlake Avenue and Lakeview. It was difficult to drive north, south, or west and get off the hill with all of the concurrent construction. But most of those projects have wrapped up. And, in my limited view, most have improved the driving, walking, and other commuting experiences in those areas
Speaking of the Rapid Ride G Line, I was diagnosed with skin cancer about a month ago, and I’ve been using the G line to get to and from the Virginia Mason Clinic for surgeries and follow-up appointments. Normally I’d drive or walk to the appointments, but with some of the meds and bandaging I was unable to. So, I took the bus.
My experience with riding the RapidRide bus has been terrific! I had my doubts on this form of transportation – friends who’ve used other RapidRide lines in the city said it really wasn’t that rapid of a form of transportation. But with fewer stops and more frequent service, I’ve been able to get from the Madison/MLK stop near my house to Terry Avenue in 10-15 minutes (25m including walks to and from the stations).
For comparison, most of my visits to the VMC clinic over the years have been done by walking up and over Capitol Hill. Walking takes about 40-45 minutes and a steep climb from my house. Or by driving my car which takes roughly the same time as taking the G Line and requires I pay $8 for parking.
I can’t speak for other Rapid Ride routes. Maybe my luck and experience is just with this line. But this is quickly becoming my new preferred method of getting downtown.
For the record, I’m retired and most of my rides have been off rush hour. This Wednesday I did take the G Line during the morning rush hour and caught it at 7:25 AM. It quickly filled and added people at every stop. Lots of students for the local schools and Seattle U. Lots of other mostly young commuters to downtown jobs. But, the time to ride downtown was essentially the same as lighter midday runs.
In some ways, things are improving around here. Same could be said for the new Montlake Lid, which makes walking for pedestrians and riding for cyclists and other wheels much more safe and quiet through that huge and busy Montlake / SR520 interchange.
Even that little Metro bus loop-de-loop turnaround near Lakeview and Eastlake has calmed down that hazardous intersection near there. It could be a drag walking through there in the past.
Joel
Puzzled about 2020 population of 610,000. Typo?
City says 737,000 in 2020.
https://www.seattle.gov/opcd/population-and-demographics/about-seattle
Joel: I agree that Seattle’s boomer, Post Alley-ish center does not seem to be holding — but disagree that anything outside your centrist band is “looney.” I voted for Bruce (as a protest against “defunding” lunacy), but have been disappointed by his recent efforts to push the homeless around without offering any notice, housing options, or basic humanity. Katie Wilson is smart and not at all looney.
Editors: Joel’s piece has a number of errors, including some whoppers: The WTO protests were in 1999, not 1888. Joe Mallahan (not Malayan) is the mayoral candidate returning from a distant past.
Thanks, editors, for fixing some of the errors. You got a century closer with the year of the WTO protests in Seattle, but are still off by a year: It was 1999, not 1998.
Hatch is correct on 1999.
Katie Wilson strikes me as a far-left progressive whose opinions are noticed because she head the Transit Riders Union (TRU). But data about that organization is lacking. A quick internet search reveals that the TRU does not disclose how many members it has. In the past, it has gotten funding from the SEIU, the most lefty union in our area (that much is revealed on its website, but its current funding is not disclosed). I think she heads an organization that mostly exists on paper, as far as I can tell, and hides data about its members and current funding. I would certainly hope that an individual whose status has been elevated solely to advance causes dear to the far left would not be elected mayor, because she I doubt she is up to the task!