Read With Caution: Early Presidential Polls in Washington

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Crosscut’s Elway Poll for the Democratic presidential nomination is just out, and can be compared with an earlier (Jan 31) KING-5 poll to give some indication of how this state’s March 10 primary might turn out. These polls need to be taken with shakers-full of salt, since the Super Tuesday results will have a big impact, and some candidates might drop out before the Evergreen State votes.

Still, some gleanings can be had. Look, first at the comparison of the KING-5 poll with the Elway poll taken later (but before the Las Vegas debate). I list the voter percentages for leading candidates, with KING first and Elway second. Sanders, 26/21. Biden, 21/10. Warren, 16/11. Bloomberg, 12/15. Klobuchar, 3/10. Buttigieg, 8/9.

Among the trends: Small rise for Bloomberg (pre-debate); droop for Warren (for whom this state is a natural, and where she has spent significant time campaigning); big rise for Klobuchar; big fade for Biden. Sanders continues to lead, though losing ground and stuck in the 20s (low ceiling?). Lots of late-deciders. And, notes the Crosscut story, Only 63% of people who voted for Sanders in 2016 are still with the candidate this time around. “That is surprisingly low,” [pollster] Elway said.

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