Trump Outrage Watch: Iran Edition — TACO Tuesday (and Wednesday) (and Thursday)…

Donald Trump doubtless thinks he scared the daylights out of Iran with his threats, causing its rulers to cave in and agree to a ceasefire after seeing him post “a whole civilization will die tonight never to be brought back again” unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz.

But I have a different theory: he had the daylights scared out of him by

• a spike in oil prices, causing an increase in average gasoline prices in the U.S. from $2.98 a gallon to $3.94.
• A drop in stock prices by 2 percent.
• And an increase in the inflation rate from 2.4 percent to 3.4 percent, with forecasts for the rest of the year up to 4.5 percent.
• And of course, a collapse in his overall approval rating from 43-48 percent, depending on the poll, to 38-42 percent (and 27 percent among independents, 29 percent of all those polled on his handling of the economy (a record low), 24 percent on the cost of living, 61 percent saying inflation is getting worse, 27 percent support for the war and 36 percent on his handling of the war.
• Also, a shift in the generic Congressional ballot from tossup territory to a 30-40 seat House Democratic pickup and a 2-4 seat Senate Democratic pickup.
• And a significant tide of election races across the country flipping from Republican to Democrat.

Trump seems rattled by the trends, reaching a nadir when he posted on Easter Sunday, “Tuesday will be Power Plant day, Bridge Day, all wrapped into one in Iraq,” referring to the civilian infrastructure he threatened to destroy.                 

And he posted on Easter Sunday: “Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell. Just Watch! Praise be to Allah.” This post, plus the one about destroying “a whole civilization” led former ally Marjorie Taylor Greene to declare he’d gone “crazy” and others to start considering invoking the 25th Amendment, allowing the president’s removal as incapacitated if two-thirds of the Senate approved (a highly unlikely prospect) and others to talk about impeachment, a highly likely prospect if Democrats take over the House.

The word of the day after the US and Iran signed their two-week ceasefire pact was “fragile.” Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only four ships (and no oil tankers) to pass through on Wednesday. There also were significant attacks on Iran and neighboring Arab states Wednesday. And Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by staging the strongest attack yet on Lebanon since the start of the war Wednesday, killing 303 people.

But on Thursday, Israel announced it would begin negotiations with Lebanon. Also, there were no Iranian attacks on neighboring Arab countries or Israel, indicating some hope as ceasefire talks get ready to start Friday.

Other difficulties lie ahead, however. Though the US and Israel have inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s military strength, US and Israeli intelligence estimate that Iran still has 2,500 of its pre-war arsenal of 3,000 missiles, thousands of drones and 50 percent of its launch infrastructure.

Iran and the US will go into the talks with diametrically opposite demands:

• Iran wants a permanent end to hostilities. The US wants a temporary ceasefire before agreeing to any Iranian demands.
• Iran wants the US to accept its right to enrich uranium. The US wants no uranium enrichment and removal of all the enriched uranium (970 pounds) buried underground after US bombings in June 2025 and March 2026.
• Iran wants to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls ($1 million per oil tanker amounting to possibly $60 to $80 billion in revenues per year.) The US wants the Strait to be an international waterway charging no tolls, although Trump has floated the idea of joint control of the Strait and US sharing the toll revenues.
• Iran wants all international sanctions lifted immediately and permanently while the US wants them lifted as a reward for compliance.
• Iran wants all US forces out of the Middle East and a guarantee that the US will not resume warfare (both likely dead on arrival.)
• Also, Iran wants the US to pay reparations so that Iran can restore its damaged infrastructure (also a non-starter.)

Finally, Trump believes he has achieved “regime change” in Iran and that he is dealing (through intermediaries) with “different people—smarter, sharper, far less radical.” But experts on Iran say that real power in the country lies in the harshly radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which had a strong influence leading to the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, son of the former leader, Ali Khamenei, killed on the first day of the war. The son is believed to be more radical than his father, but far less powerful.

So what happens if two weeks pass and there is no agreement on key difficult issues? Trump has signaled further extensions of the ceasefire if some progress is made, but issues remain. He posted that US forces will remain in and around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached and fully complied with.”

But he added “If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin Starts,’ bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen.” He’s said that the prime targets would be civilian infrastructure—bridges, power plants  and desalination plants.

But there’s another scenario (forecast in The New York Times and elsewhere) that Trump really does not want the war to continue because of the economic and political pain the US and he would suffer. I think that’s the likely prospect: a short military escalation to prove he’s strong and tough, followed by a declaration of total victory and withdrawal from the war soon.

In other words, another TACO.

MORE OUTRAGES

Pardons Galore

Trump has issued more than 1,600 pardons or commutations in his second term, 1,500 to persons convicted or charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021 Trump-incited riot at the US Capitol designed to overturn Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election. The New York Times reported that 39 Jan. 6 defendants have committed new crimes since their release—their offenses including child molestation, assault, harassment, possession of child pornography, stalking and murder plots.

Separate from the Jan.6 defendants, pardons have gone to 77 persons involved in the “fake electors plot” to substitute false Trump 2020 electors for genuine Joe Biden electors to help Trump overturn Biden’s election.

Dan Greenberg of the CATO Institute has identified 166 other pardon recipients and put them into categories:

1. Those freed from paying fines and mandated restitution to fraud victims and the government. He cites work by Liz Oyer, the Justice Department’s lead pardon attorney fired by Trump, who estimates that the total of erased fees amount to $1.5 billion in Trump’s second term.
2. Pardons granted to disgraced politicians such as former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking.
3. Pardons that suggest corruption and self-dealing by Trump, such as Changpeng Zhao, who ran the crypto exchange Binance and engaged in illegal transactions with AlQueda, ISIS and Hamas and brokered a $2 million transaction for the Trump family crypto firm World Liberty Finance. He was sentenced to 4 months in prison for money laundering and ordered to pay $4.5 billion in fines.
4. Pardons of Trump political associates such as John Eastman, the lawyer who invented the “false elector” scheme; former New York Mayor Rudy Guilani, who defended Trump in 2021 with outlandish lies, and Trump defense attorney Jenna Ellis. Former US Attorney Ed Martin joked that this was “No MAGA left behind.”

NATO. Again?

Asked by the British newspaper The Telegraph if he was giving consideration to withdrawing from NATO, Trump said he was “beyond reconsideration.” He threatened this in his first term and he’s back at it—this year perhaps seriously— because NATO members would not join the US war on Iran. He called them “cowards” and the alliance “a paper tiger.”

Former Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell joined Democrats in denouncing the idea, saying NATO has “underpinned US security for 70 years.” NATO members have said Iran isn’t “their war” inasmuch as Trump didn’t seek their support when he launched it. By law, withdrawal requires Congressional approval.

Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Trump told her about NATO allies: “They were tested and they failed. It’s quite sad that NATO turned its back on the American people over the course of the last six weeks when it’s the American people who’ve been funding their defense.” Trump met Thursday for 90 minutes with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and reportedly ranted about NATO allies’ refusal to allow US warplanes to use their airfields but did not say the US was pulling out of the alliance.