What will it take to be Madam President?

Americans are divided into two camps: Those like Michelle Obama who lapsed into plain talk when saying, “The U.S. ain’t ready to be led by a woman.” Then there are others who follow former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and think this country is overdue for Madam President.

In an interview with the New York Times’ Michelle Cottle, Pelosi confided that she long believed we would have a woman president before a woman could be elected speaker of the male-dominated House. Yet that was the very barrier she shattered in 2007.

Reasons for Pelosi’s belief that we’re now ready for a woman president stem from facts that women are filling down-ballot seats (governors and senators) and that Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote in 2016.  Pelosi noted that, over the years, a number of women — impressive candidates like Kamala Harris, Nikki Haley, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Dole — have failed to win enough to make it through the presidential primaries.

Pelosi outlined a map for a successful run. She believes women should avoid focusing on identity and sidestep soft issues like childcare. Instead she wants women candidates to stress issues like the economy, national security, and making life fair — a platform heavy on strength and toughness. The former speaker speculates about the new generation and its emerging leadership. Pelosi turns to that younger group; she says she sees Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Elisa Stotkin as possible frontrunners.

Besides Pelosi’s assessment, there are hurdles all presidential candidates (men and women alike) confront, attributes like “likeability.” There’s the just-folks, populist test: “Can you imagine having a beer with candidate so-and-so?” It was an obstacle Hillary worked to surmount by making forays into blue-collar bars and random hangouts.

In the handbook for winning, experts say it’s not what you’ve done, but what you are going to do, especially your plans to improve people’s lives. They also say that you should throw caution to the winds and become more real and accessible. The perfect candidate should be credible and down to earth while risking a few pie-in-the-sky promises. In New York City’s mayoral contest, Zohran Mamdani won by passing both relatability and credibility tests.

Arguably the most crucial test, a third one, is “electability.” Men have it easier than women owing to the old boy culture. Yet look at Donald Trump’s track record of misogyny and racism, combined with alleged sexual assaults and groping of women. Who would have dreamed the guy who bragged about shooting someone with impunity on Fifth Avenue could make it to the White House?

Candidates go into a race facing a gender gap — more women vote than men. The Rutgers Centre for Politics found women more likely to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024 by 6-8 percentage points, but in 2020 women voters had favored Joe Biden by 12-15 points. By the 2024 election, there was a male backlash. According to think tank surveys, women candidates are perceived as “too liberal.” This has been even more pronounced for Democratic women, making it likely that our first woman president will be a Republican.

What might that first successful Republican woman president look like? Some pundits predict she’ll be middle-aged, white, upper middle class, college-educated, a mother with an authentic religious background and strong party activism: Think a younger Susie Wiles.

When it comes to speculation about the road to the first woman president, the Rutgers Centre advances the “dead body” scenario. That script has a woman elected veep becoming president when the male president dies. Another route is the “political dead body” when the party can’t unite behind a male frontrunner and a woman becomes the default candidate and then goes on to win. Finally, there is the “backlash route” that favors a woman candidate if there is a perception of further reductions in women’s rights leading to a coalition to combat inequality. This was what the Democrats were hoping for in 2024, but it didn’t quite materialize.

Getting back to Nancy Pelosi’s optimistic thinking, the retired speaker doesn’t count losing a presidential race as an utter calamity. She has faith that each loss is paving the way forward and “it will happen.”