Pragmatism Wins but the Blue Wave Fails to Sweep Seattle’s Election

Tuesday’s election, widely dubbed a Blue Sweep, featured Democrats winning by very large margins in Virginia, New Jersey, Maine, California, and New York. That sweep may be less than meets the eye. Mayor-elect Mamdani aside, it was mostly a win for the pragmatic side of the Democrats, with lots of moderates coming to the aid of victorious Abigail Spanberger in Virginia (57-43%) and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey (56-43%), and the business-fueled rebound of Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell (53-46%) over left-newbie Katie Wilson. 

I worry that this pendulum election came too early for the crucial midterm elections for Congress one year hence, giving the Trump forces time to recalibrate, get some distance from the erratic Trump, and give some time for the Democrats to divide and fail to conquer.

The Democratic disarray was vividly demonstrated by the two terrific speeches by the triumphant Zohran Mamdani in New York City (did he promise too much?), who won a victory in Manhattan, and by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose counterpunch gerrymandering was far ahead in California.

It remains to be seen if Trump (or the Republicans) will regroup in time, borrowing the Democratic winning message of affordability, or if the pragmatist wing of the Democrats will find a champion better than California Gov. Newsom.

Here in Seattle, the voters missed a big chance to toss Mayor Harrell, who proved to be surprisingly vulnerable to an unknown challenger. Here again, the timing was wrong. Cities like Portland and San Francisco woke up to the excesses of previous too-liberal mayors and came up with experienced challengers who won. A year ago, Harrell looked invincible, having lined up leading Democratic endorsers like Rep. Pramila Jayapal, union support, and corporate cash. So the chance to find an experienced rival was missed, and the marginal but vulnerable Katie Wilson won the primary by 10 percent. 

Katie Wilson may yet win (Harrell now leads, 53-46%), since late votes trend in the progressive direction. Regardless, there will be a new progressive center of political gravity at City Hall, and perhaps a new message of economic development, thanks to Katie Wilson’s highlighting of the resonant issue of affordabilty.

The real shifts will be coming from Dionne Foster, who easily defeated Sara Nelson (58-42%), the business-oriented president of the Council. Foster will join Eddie Lin (a clear victor) and Alexis Rinck (who won, 79-20%) as the progressive bloc of the  City Council, along with the newly elected city attorney, Erika Evans. I foresee a contest between Dan Strauss and Rinck for the council presidency and leadership.

Another key indicator: whether the experienced moderate Tim Burgess will stay on as a key deputry mayor to Harrell. Further, the progressive coalition may be chastened by the fading of Katie Wilson, and revert to less sweeping legislation, building to 2029.

Meanwhile, the progressive wing was leading on the King County Council, with Sarah Perry and Steffanie Fain joining Teresa Mosqueda as a liberal bloc. That bloc would be buttressed by the new County Executive — assuming he  prevails and stays on the job, Girmay Zahilay (50-48% lead over the more moderate Claudia Balducci).

The local results are more mixed than the national Blue Wave. That probably translates into more instability in Seattle leadership (now four so-so mayors old), but a new generation is definitely coming, particularly if Wilson decides to seek a City Council seat and keeps up her pressure on the Mayor to perform better. Mayor Harrell may have survived the election, but it is far from clear that he will emerge as an energized leader or a sleepy survivor.

Nationally, much depends on whether the Trump-Mamdani fight turns into a media-circus, and if the Republicans try to form a post-Trump coalition or sink into the temptation of a Mamdani-baiting blame-game. I suspect that Trump is waiting for the crucial moment when he (ta-da) “solves” the government shutdown or decides to launch another diversionary rocket. One opportunity from the recent election now appears: the arrival of a post-Trump, post-chaos bipartisan leader.