Trump Outrage Watch: Too Much Greatness Edition

Making the World Great Again

During his 2024 campaign, Donald Trump boasted that Russia’s war on Ukraine would never have occurred had he been in office and that he could stop the conflict in 24 hours owing to his “good relationship” with Vladimir Putin. Similarly, he said Hamas would not have attacked Israel and that he could resolve that conflict “very fast.”

He might have been a credible candidate for his longed-for Nobel Peace Prize had he been able to make his boasts come true. But he’s failed on both counts.

And the American public knows it: Gallup and Quinnipiac polls put Trump’s approval rating on Russia-Ukraine in the 30s, with 61 percent in the latter saying Trump has been too lenient with Russia. Trump’s approval for handling Gaza averages 39% in three recent polls. Sixty percent disapprove of Israel’s conduct of the conflict.

Obviously, Trump misjudged both Putin, who wants to conquer Ukraine and make it a vassal of Russia. And Hamas, which wants to destroy Israel, correctly figured its murderous attack last October 7 would trigger an Israeli overreaction that would stop Saudi Arabia from signing a peace treaty with Israel.

He’s also misjudged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who evidently wants to make Gaza so unlivable that the Palestinian population (2 million people) will leave its homeland so that Trump can turn it into another Riviera, with Trump hotels, of course.

Trump sided with Russia and falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war. He proposed a “peace plan” that would have given Russia control of all the land it conquered in Ukraine, preceded by a ceasefire he wanted both countries to accept.

And he tried unsuccessfully to stop the Gaza war and now has said Israel should just “do what it wants” to defeat Hamas—which means continue laying waste to Gaza and denying humanitarian aid to Palestinians, killing 60,000 people with bombs and threatening 500,000 with starvation.

Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Putin for his adamant refusal to agree to a ceasefire and his escalating bomb and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure. But anyone who thinks he has truly awakened to Putin’s treachery hasn’t paid close attention to Trump’s behavior, as opposed to his words.

Trump did shorten his deadline from 50 days to “ten or 12” for Putin to agree to a ceasefire or face “severe sanctions.” But ten or 12? That’s not what you’d call a firm deadline. That threat was mocked in Moscow, as it deserved to be. Former Russian President Demitry Medveyev posted that Trump had issued a “theatrical ultimatum” and “the world shuddered, expecting the consequences. Belligerent Europe was disappointed. Russia didn’t care.”

Trump has threatened to put tariffs on Russian products, but Russia only sent $3 billion worth of goods to the US in 2024, compared to $571 billion for the European Union. Trump also has suggested he might impose “secondary tariffs” on countries buying Russian oil. But Russia’s foremost trading partners are China, India and Turkey. They would not appreciate such a US move.

If Trump really was serious about forcing Russia to agree to a ceasefire, he would immediately give Ukraine the offensive weapons it needs to thwart Russia’s aggression instead of selling US defensive weapons to NATO allies for transfer to Ukraine, a distinctly complicated (and weak) response to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. He could pay the cost by tapping frozen Russian assets, which amount to between $300 billion and $370 billion.

Clearly, Russia aims to keep humiliating Trump and bombing Ukraine, hoping to wreck and weaken that country so Russia can dictate any terms for a cessation of hostilities.

If Russia, by whatever formula, is seen to have “won” the war, it will be a serious defeat for the West, encouraging China to believe it can absorb Taiwan unimpeded. It also will scare Europe into thinking that Putin will try to fulfill his dream of reconstituting the old Soviet empire with invasions of now-NATO countries—as well he might.

Meantime, Israel is likely to continue massacring and starving Palestinian civilians with Trump’s blessing. Trump has said the US will supply food aid to Gaza, but it’s unlikely to end the humanitarian nightmare Gazans face, victims both to Hamas’s intransigence and Israel’s violence.

Making Trade Great Again

Now six months into his second term, Trump is casting himself as the architect of American economic greatness—a “Golden Age” as he has prophesied on several occasions. From his sweeping tariff regime to his “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget overhaul, Trump insists the U.S. is undergoing a transformation: one that prioritizes domestic manufacturing, deregulation, and patriotic investment.

But, as with his foreign policy claims, beneath the bold rhetoric lies a deeply polarizing policy mix—one that’s generating as much friction as fiscal impact. Trump claims his new 10% universal tariff—alongside targeted rates as high as 50%—has “brought billions pouring in.” Projections for 2025 do range up to $300 billion, prompting the president to label his tariff policy “the most successful revenue tool in American history.”

The administration touts secondary benefits, including a resurgence in domestic factory orders and investments from abroad. Eight trade deals—including with the EU, UK, and Japan—were also signed, averting threatened higher tariffs (though much higher than when Trump arrived) and locking in favorable terms for U.S. exports. But he is falling well short of the “90 deals in 90 days” he forecast initially.

Even counting the deals, the average US tariff level now is 21 to 23%, the highest since 1910 and just higher than the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (20%), blamed for deepening the Great Depression. Eighty three percent of US businesses report they plan to raise prices in the next six months and three-quarters say they already have passed tariff costs on to consumers.

Trump’s tariffs have pushed up prices for groceries, furniture, clothing and appliances, contributing to a 2.7% rise in the Consumer Price Index in June. Auto prices are projected rise by 13.5% or $6,400 per automobile. The University of Michigan’s forecast of the inflation rate in 2026 is 6.5%, the highest since the early 1980s. Inflation worries have led the Federal Reserve to hold off lowering borrowing rates, much to Trump’s disgust.

Lower income Americans face the greatest impact from the tariffs and are expected to lose 5.5% of disposable income this year alone.

On Friday, one day after Trump began a new trade war, raising tariffs 25% to 50% on nations which didn’t reach a deal with the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 73,000 jobs had been created in July owing to reduced economic activity resulting from his already-imposed duties. The bureau also revised its May and June reports downward by 285,000 jobs. Markets dropped as did the value of the dollar, reflecting worry that Trump’s economic program was cracking.

What was Trump’s reaction? He fired the messenger, the head of the Statistics Bureau, implying she had manipulated the job data even though she’s a widely respected, long-serving expert who was overwhelmingly confirmed by the Senate. The only upside would be a decision by the Fed to ease interest rates in response to the weakening labor market.

Making the One Big Bill Great Again

Trump has heralded his One Big Beautiful budget Bill (OBBB) as “the biggest tax cut in (US) history.”  (Actually, at $5 trillion over 10 years, it slightly trails Ronald Reagan’s 1981 cut as a percentage of the nation’s total economy.) The bill permanently extends his 2017 tax reforms while adding provisions like a $6,000 senior bonus deduction and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.

Trump claims the average American household will see a $13,000 increase in take-home pay, though that average conceals cavernous disparities in benefits for different income groups. He also points to deregulation as a major victory, with $180 billion in compliance savings.

Together, the administration says these policies have spurred record S&P and Nasdaq performance and created over 671,000 jobs. As usual, though, Trump is overstating the virtues of his policies and neglecting the downsides. The Penn-Wharton economic model predicts a long-term GDP loss of 6% and a 5% wage loss costing middle-income households a $22,000 lifetime loss.

The Congressional Budget Office projects OBBB will add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit over 10 years. While Trump argues tariffs will offset the cost, the CBO estimates only $2.5 trillion in tariff revenue—leaving a $900 billion shortfall even in best-case scenarios.

The Republican Congress passed a $9 billion bill cutting foreign aid and funding for public broadcasting. It didn’t think of raising taxes on the rich. High-income households gain most from the OBBB tax cuts—the top 10% receive 60% of the benefits, the other 90% of the population, 40%. The top 1% receives 33% and the top .1 percent, 12-15% with the average gain $300,000. And lowest-income groups, the biggest losers from tariff price hikes, actually face income losses—1.1 percent or $165 in 2027, 6.5% in 2023 and $27,500 lifetime—from the tax provisions in OBBB.

Nearly 11.8 million Americans could lose healthcare coverage under new work requirements called for in OBBB and 270,000 SNAP recipients will lose food aid. In a gift to the gun lobby (and criminals) OBBB repeals the tax on silencers. And in spite of public disapproval of the way Trump’s mass deportation plan is being carried out, OBBB increases the budget for ICE by $30 billion, making it the highest-funded of all federal law enforcement agencies.

So How’s the American Public Taking all this Greatness?

An Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center poll showed that only 29% of Americans support OBBB, 66 percent believe it primarily benefits the rich and only 21% believe the bill will help their family financially.

Trump’s tariffs also are unpopular: a Washington Post/ABC poll showed that only 33% of voters have a favorable view of them, 67% say that the tariffs will cause prices of everyday goods to rise and even among Republicans only 52% believe that tariffs help.

According to Gallup, Trump’s approval rating on the economy sits at 37% and at 36% on his handling of inflation. Inflation was the top issue on the minds of voters who elected Trump in 2024, but 60% percent of Americans say his policies—especially tariffs—have made it worse.

Another economic cost that’s not counted in Trumpenomics is the increased number of billion-dollar disasters that will certainly occur as a result of Trump’s slashing the environmental protection, statistical tracking and rebuilding work of the EPA, NOAA, Department of Energy and FEMA by an average of 50 to 60 % from Biden administration levels.

Though Trump and his subordinates dismiss the danger and cost of climate change, the fact is that the number of annual billion-dollar disasters has increased from 9 per year from 1980 to 2024, to 27 in 2024 alone. I’ll revisit this outrage in detail soon.

Trump acknowledged in his book, “The Art of the Deal,” that he often indulges in “truthful hyperbole,” which he defines as “an innocent form of exaggeration—and very effective form of promotion.” He obviously employs the exaggeration tactic often: He called himself “a very stable genius.” Describing his 2024 victory, he said “America has given us a historical and powerful mandate.” He described Joe Biden as “the worst president in American history.”

However, the ghost writer of his book, Tony Schwartz, said that “truthful hyperbole” actually was a euphemism for deceit, calling it “a way of saying, ‘it’s a lie, but who cares?” If anyone criticizes claims for his tariffs or OBBB, Trump declares that “no one knows the economy better than I do.” And he probably thinks the same about foreign policy.