Political warning signs are up for two high profile officeholders. A pair of just-released polls show Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell in a neck-and-neck race with challenger Katie Wilson, while Gov. Bob Ferguson is off to a rocky start. The Democratic-run Legislature gets low marks even though a majority approve of its policy decisions.
In turbulent times, it appears Washington’s electorate is living up to an old Adlai Stevenson adage: “We pick our politicians and then we pick on them.” Or, as pollster Stuart Elway says of Ferguson (tanking, with only a third of voters giving him a thumbs-up rating): “Folks are just not feeling very well connected to their government right now.”
With days to go before the August 5 primary, a new Northwest Progressive Institute survey gives Harrell a modest 33-31 percent lead over Wilson, with T-Mobile executive Joe Mallahan barely registering at 3 percent. A whopping 27 percent are undecided. No other contender tops one percent. Wilson takes a 35-33 percent lead when voters are prodded to take a look at voters’ pamphlets statements. Mallahan gets 6 percent.
Wilson, head of Transit Riders and an electoral newbie, has a 43-39 percent lead when matched one-on-one with Harrell. Fifteen percent remain undecided while 4 percent say they will not vote. Harrell is seeking a second term, risky business in the Emerald City. Seattle voters ousted Mayor Paul Schell in the 2009 primary, while Ed Murray beat Mayor Mike McGinn four years later. Few recent Seattle mayors have survived to a second term.
But Harrell may benefit from another trend, voters inflicting punishment in the primary only to reelect incumbents in November. Mayor Wes Uhlman trailed challenger Liem Tuai by 15,000 votes in the 1973 primary, only to win by 6,000 votes in the general election.
“Voters in Seattle are not happy,” said NPI executive director Andrew Villeneuve. The poll of 561 voters, by Change Research, revealed an “unsettled” electorate.
Wilson is the only local politician with a positive rating. The effort by Harrell’s campaign to boost Wilson’s negatives “isn’t working,” added Villeneuve, with the challenger gaining traction among millennials and Generation Z voters.
One contributing factor: The Harrell stump speech is laden with statistics on the city’s falling crime rate and signs of downtown recovery. But local TV has manufactured a crime spree, particularly the right-wing Sinclair ownership of KOMO-TV. Shootings and homelessness dominate, along with car crashes.
On the statewide front, Ferguson ratings are lowest since the first six months of Mike Lowry’s administration in 1993. Voters were up in arms over tax hikes under Lowry, and now appear mad over a six-cent-a-gallon increase in gas prices this year.
Fergy is running 11 points behind Christine Gregoire at this point, and trails Gary Locke’s initial rating by 20 points. Fifty-three percent of the 403 voters in the Cascade PBS/Elway survey give Ferguson a “fair” (22) or “poor” (31) percent rating. Fourteen percent had no opinion.
The breakdown of the poll, taken July 7-11, was 43 percent Democrats, 38 percent Independents and 19 percent Republicans. Unsurprisingly, 87 percent of R’s give the Governor fair or poor ratings.
But Ferguson only gets a 60 percent positive rating from Democrats. Having to confront a $15 billion budget shortfall, Ferguson urged spending restraint but eventually signed onto a budget with $9 billion in new taxes.
The result, in Elway’s words, “whiplash.” The Governor gets 59 percent negative marks for signing onto to new taxes, largely on wealthy businesses and individuals, plus digital services and nicotine services.
Republicans are trashing Ferguson as tax happy and a threat to civilization on a par with transgender teenage athletes. But in the insular world of the Seattle left, he’s faulted for taxing too little while cutting too much.
“Maybe that’s the curse of being the middle guy,” said Elway. Ferguson has stepped up courtship within Democratic ranks. The Governor’s steepest fall is among Democratic-leaning Independents, only 30 per cent of whom give him positive marks.
The Democrats in Olympia are also dealing with contradictions. Only one percent say the Legislature did “excellent” work, and 23 percent a “good” job. Thirty percent rated as “fair” while 34 percent rated “poor: 10 percent declined to state an opinion.
But… the poll’s response to stuff the Legislature did was positive. Sixty-one percent approved requiring instruction for firearms purchasers, and an equal positive rating went to capping landlords’ rent hikes. Fifty four percent favor offering unemployment benefits to striking workers, a measure which has radio mouthpieces frothing at the mouth.
By contrast, however, 61 percent of those surveyed disapproved of the gas tax increase.
The ramifications? A consequential off-year election, in city, county and state. Key special legislative elections are taking place in swing districts, the 5th (east King County) and 26th (Kitsap Peninsula).
In 1994, with Lowry running low and taxes rising, Republicans scored bigtime wins, setting the stage for a quarter century playing budget brinkmanship with three Democratic governors.
(Author’s note: I am a contributor to NPI’s Cascadia Advocate, and Andrew Villeneuve is a yellow dog Democrat. But NPI polls have been spot on, when the D’s have won and when they’ve been in trouble.)
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Apparently gone and forgotten. “Seattle voters ousted Mayor Paul Schell in the 2009 primary…” Greg Nickels and I “ousted” Paul in the 2001 primary and Greg went on to beat me in the general. He served two terms, before being “ousted” in his run for a 3rd in 2009. I remember losing and I’d bet so does Greg.