With just minutes to the filing deadline, and the path greased for his successor, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Montana, announced Monday he is not seeking reelection. He has not been a consequential senator, but his withdrawal could have shattering consequences for control of the U.S. Senate.
Daines is the sixth Republican senator to hang it up in the 2026 cycle, giving Democrats the opportunity to flip seats. Four are retiring. A pair of MAGA dunces, Sens. Tommy Tuberville in Alabama and Marsha Blackburn next door in Tennessee, are running for governor of their respective states .
The fix is in on the GOP side of the aisle. U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme showed up to file, backed by Daines and blessed by a “complete and total” Trump endorsement. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte chimed in, stating that Alme will “help President Trump put AMERICA FIRST.”
But greasing a path can create a slippery slope. Four largely unknown Democrats have filed. The real foe, however, is independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who recently resigned as president of the University of Montana. He’s been an Army Ranger, a Rhodes Scholar, and a General Electric executive.
Bodnar needs 13,000 ballot signatures by May 26 to earn a place on the November ballot. He is backed by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, and has a familiar path to follow: in Nebraska, a machinist named Dan Osborn copped 46 percent of the vote in a challenge to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
Bondar is not going to be a shrinking violet. He let fly announcing his candidacy, saying: “This country is in crisis and our national political parties are declining us. The American dream is getting crushed, and both parties are to blame. They pit us against each other while they line their own pockets.” The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already hit him with a TV spot decrying the sin of letting transgender students compete in athletic events.
Montana has, of late, taken a sharp right turn, but Democrats have reason for hope. Ruling Republicans remain edgy, scheming ways making it harder for college students and Native Americans to vote. They’ve been thwarted in court by the Seattle-based Perkins-Coie law firm.
Three factors give Democrats hope. Time for TV spots is relatively cheap in the Big Sky State. Montana has a tradition of populism, a legacy of resistence to mining oligarchs. The mighty Fort Peck Dam is the New Deal’s legacy in the state.
The most salient factor is the record of past Democratic senators. Center-right Sen. Burton K. Wheeler galvanized opposition to FDR’s efforts to pack the U.S. Supreme Court. Flinty, scholarly Mike Mansfield served as Senate Majority Leader. His counsel on dangers of putting U.S. troops on the ground in Asia were not heeded by Lyndon Johnson.
In 2018, Trump fixated on Sen. Tester. He and Donald Jr. paid repeated visits targeting the senator. Tester squeaked through but was not as lucky six years later, losing to Sheehy by 46,000 votes. Daines departs the Senate with friends in high places, saying “I am grateful to God for allowing me to serve.”
This article also appears in Cascadia Advocate.
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