A famous bit of wisdom from Yogi Berra may define the Democrats’ dilemma following this year’s election: “When you see a fork in the road, take it.”
The party out of power is seeking a direction: It is likely to wind up with two. A pair of center-left Democratic House members, part of the “modsquad,” are favored to win governorships in Virginia and New Jersey.
Very different political animals populate the party. A 33-year-old state assemblyman, member of Democratic Socialists of America, is the Democrats’ nominee to be mayor of New York City. The left-activist candidate for mayor in Seattle, Katie Wilson, outpolled business-friendly Mayor Bruce Harrell in the primary.
Former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, leading in Virginia polls for governor, is a former CIA intelligence officer who worked on nuclear proliferation and terrorism. She was a member of the centrist New Democrat Coalition in Congress and a sharp critic of the “defund the police” craze.
Spanberger leads Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the polls. The Republican nominee is hurting in Northern Virginia, with its large federal workforce slashed by Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency.” Either candidate would be the first of her gender to be governor of the Old Dominion.
In New Jersey, Democratic gubernatorial nominee and frontrunner U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is a Naval Academy graduate, combat helicopter veteran, alumna of the blue-chip Kirkland & Ellis law firm, and a former federal prosecutor. She, too, is a New Democrat and initially refused to vote for Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker.
Both Sherrill and Spangerger were elected to Congress in 2018, flipping Republican-held seats. Both have won tough races in suburban and exurban constituencies.
Across the Hudson River, Zohran Mamdani is a charismatic nominee but full-time villain demonized on Fox News. He ran from far back — and walked the length of Manhattan — to upset ex-New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Cuomo is on the ballot as an independent, setting up a rematch for November. He may get backstage help from Trump. The two tough guys, Mamdani and Cuomo, hail from Queens, know each other, cut ethical corners — and Trump had called Mamdani “a communist.”
Mamdani is Uganda born, of Indian origins, a Muslim, and advocate for Palestinians in a city with the largest Jewish population outside of Israel. He has, however, caught on — particularly with younger voters — with an activist government agenda. Mamdani would freeze rents in rent-controlled housing, he advocates for fare-free buses, he wants public child care, and he would establish city-owned grocery outlets.
What if everybody wins? The struggle for the party’s future will produce contested party primaries in such battlefields as Michigan’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate nominations. The Democrat vs. Democrat contests will be New York politics writ large. The two camps are symbolized locally by U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, loud voice of the Seattle left, and workhorse realist U.S. Rep. Adam Smith.
What if we witness this year, yet again, Democrats’ come-from-ahead defeats? It raises the specter of ceaseless recriminations, plus tedious party-in-crisis pieces in The New York Times. It won’t bode well for 2026.
The party has been transfixed by Trump, once himself a donor to Democratic candidates. The party’s positive agenda of a strengthened social safety net was lost in last year’s election. Inflation trumped its infrastructure accomplishments and overshadowed such Biden deeds as capping insulin costs for diabetic seniors.
What face will Democrats show the nation? Medicare for all? Or such incremental measures as extending the insulin cap to all Americans? An expansive, vaguely worded Green New Deal? Or such grounded accomplishments as windmill farms?
The time is growing short, as is the nation’s attention span.
This article also appears in Cascadia Advocate.
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